By Dr. Mbita Chitala
As a student of international law and politics, here are my views on the Russia- Ukraine conflict and why I think the only solution is dialogue and not war or sanctions.
WHY THE WAR
In a speech at the Munich Security Conference on Febuary, 20, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky said that his country was considering the renunciation of nuclear weapons which had been provided in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994. President Vladimir Putin of Russia replied soon after that the Russian Federation will never allow Ukraine to acquire nuclear weapons as this would present a strategic threat to Russia. Putin further observed that Ukraine still had a wide range of know-how in the field of nuclear weapons development left over from the Soviet Era. Ukraine had factories in Dnepropetrovsk, Yuzhnoye Design Bureau, Yazhmazshzavod and the Grom Complex that could easily increase the range of Ukrainian ballistic systems to strike the Russian Federation.
Many observers have concluded that this was perhaps the last straw that compelled Russia to invade Ukraine, to first take over the Chernobyl Nuclear Complex to prevent any Ukrainian from accessing any plutonium at the complex and disable the Airforce of Ukraine together with destroying more than 935 military sites of potential source of mischief. There was also the objective to end the war in the Donbass region that had resulted in over 14,000 deaths since the Maidan events in 2014 that resulted in a coup d’etate against an elected government and installed an anti-Russian right wing administration.
Of course, War, no matter the cause, is a terrible thing anywhere in the world. That is why President Dwight Eisenhower in his famous speech of 17 January,1961 denounced the undue influence of the Military Industrial Complex in political decisions. Henry Kissinger in his writings also defended the old principle of equilibrium and mutual respect among nations as the sound basis for cooperation and mutual help instead of ill-will and war. Many scholars are aware of President Putin’s article in June, 2021 where he invited all human beings to think about the need to avoid irresponsible adventures in international politics or in the global market of suicidal atomic weapons.
CONTAINMENT OF RUSSIA
The drive by NATO to contain Russia and by extension China appears to be driving reason why international relations in Europe became compromised. Russia felt being encircled by NATO by the mere fact that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, former Soviet Republics were being allowed to join NATO and allowing missiles to be stationed in their countries all targeting the Russian Federation. This is true for countries like Poland, Romania, and the Baltic Republics of Estonia, Lativia and Lithuania all joined NATO and allowed NATO offensive weapons to be stationed in their countries. Russia felt threatened and this was worsened by the insistence of Ukraine to join NATO. This later matter was perceived by Russia as an existential threat to the Russian Federation.
It is evident that the United States would never allow Russia or China to create a military alliance with Mexico, Venezuela, Nicaragua or Cuba and place offensive military assets and bases on these countries. That is why America on several occasions tried to assassinate Fidel Castro and yet Castro was President of a sovereign state. Iraq was a sovereign state when the Americans invaded Iraq and put away Saddam Hussein on false reasons only to later realize that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction. Libya too was a sovereign state but Muamar Gaddaffi was made to look like a devil incarnate and this great son of Africa was murdered after an unjustified NATO bombing and Libya lost its glory.
If the United States and their NATO allies will not tolerate China or Russia to have military bases in Cuba or Mexico or Nicaragua or Venezuela, they should accord Russia and China the same respect.
All well informed human beings on our planet earth know that there can be no war between Russia and NATO or between two nuclear powers due to the iron principle of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). NATO as the only military alliance on earth following the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact should be the one to show self-restraint and demonstrate that they have a sense of ethics and responsibility to stop and not to stimulate nuclear proliferation and censor President Zerensky when he threatened to start armed nuclear proliferation at the Munich meeting.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the solution is for Russia and Ukraine to sit and talk. There is no need to destroy Ukraine or to exterminate all human beings on earth through nuclear war. There is no need for NATO and the EU to flood weapons in Ukraine and it is not possible for anyone to win this proxy war between NATO and Russia.
SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
As regards the sanctions that the United States, Britain and the European Union have placed on the Russian Federation, they pose a great risk to the collapse of the global economy.
After the refusal of the United States and NATO to give security guarantees to Russia that Ukraine will never Join NATO and that all missiles stationed in former Soviet Republics shall be dismantled, Russia was faced with two choices, either (1) to permit NATO to continue installing missiles, bases, troops, weaponry along Russia’s border including Ukraine or (2) to invade Ukraine to prevent that from continue happening. Russia chose the latter. The United States and its NATO allies together with the EU responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 22nd February, 2022 by imposing sanctions on Russia with the aim to impoverish Russia and hope that Russians would rise up to protest and overthrow the Putin regime and replace it with another government more amenable to western values.
WHY SANCTIONS ARE NOT A SOLUTION
Many observers know that sanctions and embargoes are, firstly, no different from terrorism in that they both target innocent people with death and suffering as a way to achieve a political goal. Secondly, sanctions never achieve their political goals as the 60 year embargo on Cuba has demonstrated as well as how sanctions have failed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and so on. And thirdly, sanctions constitute a direct infringement on the liberty of all citizens of the world as people have a right to trade with whomever they want or travel wherever they want. Sanctions of banning airlines and airspace to prevent human beings to travel and socially engage culturally and socially are an affront to human civilization.
WHY SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA ARE RISKY
The United States, Britain and the European Union together with their NATO allies have chosen to sanction Russia subjecting the whole global community to the risk of causing damage to the global economy. Unlike small third world economies, Russia is a global nuclear power which cannot be bullied.
It is evident that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has been preparing for this catastrophe and many analysts have concluded that Russia will endure the contest of selfreliance more stoically than the perpetrators of the sanctions.
The suspension of Nord Stream 2 is irrelevant once Russia controls Ukraine. In fact the losers will be the several European Banks and investors who put their money on the pipeline and who may seek more than US$40 billion compensation from the German State and insurers. At any rate, there is the parallel Nord Stream 1 which continues to supply Germany with more than 30% of its gas that is not subject to sanctions yet.
The fall in the MOEX Index in Moscow means that Western Investors with Russian portfolios through pension funds and so on will be the large losers.
The decline in the exchange rate of the Ruble will not mean the end of Russia as Russia planned for this to cushion the internal budget against shocks.
Russia has more than US$635 billion forex reserves, a small national debt of 18 percent of GDP. Its fiscal surplus does not rely on foreign investors to finance. This renders the sanctions against new issuance of sovereign bonds a mere nuisance for Russia
Russia is currently enjoying windfall gains from its commodities. Gas futures contracts for March, 2022 are above Euro 120 a megawatt hour. Russia is earning US$700 million a day from sales of oil to Europe and the United States.
The Technology blockade in tandem with Taiwan’s TSMC and Korea’s Samsung will in the short term hurt Russia but Russia has not only stockpiles but also own producers able to make chips down to 28 nanometres. China will also no doubt gain a market here.
NUCLEAR SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
The so called nuclear sanction or the freezing out of Russia from the SWIFT payment system means that Russia will be prevented from accessing over 11,000 institutions across 200 countries. The SWIFT serves as the messaging domain for financial institutions to exchange funds. This crucial tool, known as the Nuclear Option, was implemented to replace the Teleprinter Exchange, known as Telex back in 1973 as the Telex System became technologically obsolete. The idea is to prevent Russia from making any financial transaction anywhere in the world.
This nuclear sanction will however allow Russia and other powers to de-link from the US Dollar if the American Dollar is used as an instrument of military and foreign policy. Russia and others will simply find alternatives to the dollar and protect themselves.
The freezing out of Russia from the SWIFT also risks causing damage to the global economy. It will accelerate the de-dollarization of global finance. China and Russia already have their own payment systems that can be linked to bilateral trade. China and Russia could curb reliance on the U.S. Dollar, avoid sanctions through digital currency applications or some version of the IMS’s SDR or something completely new.
More painful, the Europeans will just be shooting themselves in the foot. Gas from Russia will stop flowing into Europe. Oil shipments to both the United States and Europe from Russia will be blocked. Russia, the biggest exporter of wheat and other grains like corn will come to a standstill as will be other Russian essential products such as Aluminium, cooperation in health, science, space and global peace and security.
Weaponzing of the U.S Dollar which is the reserve currency of the world is not a good or fair policy as this would risk collapsing the dollar as the lynchpin of the global financial system. Covid-19 is still wrecking the world economy and inflation is high everywhere already. Why place more unnecessary risks on the world community?
