By Zanji Sinkala
The decision to phase out fossil fuels at COP28 fell off the radar in the final minute. What was almost tangible during climate negotiations, suddenly slipped out of reach.
United Arab Emirates, a country heavily dependent on oil and gas for its bread and butter, made a controversial decision to host the COP28. For the first time, the glamorous city of Dubai carried the world’s expectations and hopes for the possible end to fossil fuels amid the global climate change crisis.
“In the hottest year on record, our collective power as people across the world resulted in the first ever signal that the world needs to transition away from fossil fuels, the major cause of the climate crisis,” said Tasneem Essop, Executive Director of Climate Action Network International.However, after heated negotiations during the COP, hopes dwindled, as the decision on fossil fuels ended up being a statement to transition away from it, rather than phase it out altogether.
Some have seen this as a victory, in that for the first time in the COP outcome, fossil fuels were on the negotiation table. Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa, said the elephant in the room was finally being named.
“For the first time in three decades of climate negotiations, the words fossil fuels have made it into a COP outcome. We are finally naming the elephant in the room. The genie is never going back into the bottle and future COPs will only turn the screws even more on dirty energy. Some people may have had their expectations for this meeting raised too high, but this result would have been unheard of two years ago, especially at a COP meeting in a petrostate. It shows that even oil and gas producers can see we’re heading for a fossil-free world,” said Adow.
Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International said fossil fuels, the real culprits, were finally being outed at a UN Climate Change Conference.
“After decades of evasion, COP28 finally cast a glaring spotlight on the real culprits of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. A long-overdue direction to move away from coal, oil, and gas has been set. Yet, the resolution is marred by loopholes that offer the fossil fuel industry numerous escape routes, relying on unproven, unsafe technologies,” said Singh.
On the other hand, CEO Patrick Pouyanné of TotalEnergies expressed confidence in technology, stating that, while transitioning away from oil and gas would be a lengthy process, there was need to produce oil and gas in a more environmentally friendly manner by significantly reducing emissions through technology.
“We need absolutely to produce oil and gas in a different way by slashing down emissions. And we can do it, we have the technology,” said Pouyanné.
But statements like this did not bode well with other climate activists who termed the fossil fuels- outcome a major disappointment.
Fadhel Kaboub, associate professor of economics at Denison University and president of the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity was one such activist who termed it ‘Global North Hypocricy’.
“Using the weakest possible language of “transitioning away from fossil fuels” while most rich countries plan to spend billions of dollars building new fossil fuel infrastructure, and avoiding the financial responsibility to finance a just transition for developing countries, is the ultimate demonstration of Global North hypocrisy.
The major loophole one can sail an LNG carrier through is the language around “unabated” fossil fuels, which relies on unproven and expensive technologies of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) that are designed to extend the life of the fossil fuel industry,” said Kaboub.
As the fate of fossil fuels was concluded at COP28, Zambian Minister of Green Economy, Hon. Collins Nzovu also weighed in on the outcome, stating that any deal ought to have required wealthy countries, who have used and produced fossil fuels for so long, to quit first.
“The transition should be premised on differentiated pathways to net zero and fossil fuel phase-down,” said Collins Nzovu, Minister of Green Economy for Zambia, which chairs the African Group of countries in U.N. climate talks.Fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas, have long been the primary sources of energy, powering industries, economies, and daily life.
However, the environmental consequences of their burning have led to a contentious debate, with climate activists arguing for a transition to cleaner alternatives to address the global climate crisis.Fossil fuels have played a role in the industrialization and economic development of nations for over a century.
However, the burning of these fuels releases greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, into the atmosphere, contributing significantly to global warming and climate change.
The ongoing battle between companies heavily reliant on fossil fuels and climate activists advocating for their phase-out has become a defining conflict in the pursuit of a sustainable future.
The controversy surrounding fossil fuels centers on their undeniable link to climate change. As scientific evidence mounts, climate activists stress the urgency of transitioning to renewable energy sources to mitigate the impacts of global warming.
One glaring injustice in the battle over fossil fuels is that many economically disadvantaged nations, which contribute minimally to greenhouse gas emissions, bear the brunt of climate change impacts.
These countries often lack the resources to adapt to rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and disruptions in agricultural patterns.
“Sadly, developing countries have not yet seen the delivery of support required to confront the climate crisis. They are being asked to pick up much of the bill for the climate crisis. The agreement does not include anything like the required financial support for adaptation. This is a life and death issue, particularly for women and girls living in Africa,” said Sven Harmeling, Global Policy Lead at CARE Climate Justice Centre. Science has proven that the world today is 1.2 degrees Celsius hotter than before the industrial revolution.
This has led to harsher hurricanes, wildfires and droughts, forcing the displacement of communities confronting rising sea levels.
Hence, the Paris Climate Change Agreement encourages nations to work together in preventing a temperature increase of two degrees Celsius, with the optimal goal of keeping temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Achieving this lower limit will only happen by the fast reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to net zero. Despite these statistics, the fossil fuel industry has continued to resist change due to economic interests, job dependencies, and established infrastructures.
During the COP28 in Dubai, the number of fossil fuel lobbyists exceeded that of any previous climate conference convened by the United Nations over the past 28 years.
In an interview with Bloomberg TV before the outcome on fossil fuels was announced, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that his country would “absolutely not” agree to a deal that calls for a phase down.
Around the same period of time, while the fossil fuels phase out was still being negotiated, leaked letters showed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel vehemently warning its 13 member countries- including Nigeria, Congo, Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, South Sudan and Gabon – to oppose with “utmost urgency” and reject any text or formula that targets a fossil fuel phase out.
The letters suggested the depth of OPEC’s fear that COP28 could provide a turning point against oil and gas, which they say “put our people’s prosperity and future at risk”.
Sultan Al-Jaber, the United Arab Emirates’ COP28 president, and CEO of the UAE’s state-owned oil firm ADNOC, seemed on board with phasing down and phasing out fossil fuels and called on countries to propose language on fossil fuels for the COP deal.
“The phase down and the phase out of fossil fuels is inevitable,” said Jaber.However, an investigation by the BBC and the Centre for Climate Reporting revealed that Al-Jaber even utilized his position to advocate for oil and gas agreements with other governments right at the COP28. Documents prepared by the UAE’s COP28 team included proposed “talking points”, such as one for China where ADNOC (UAE’s state oil company) was “willing to jointly evaluate international LNG [liquefied natural gas] opportunities” in Mozambique, Canada and Australia. The documents also suggested telling a Colombian minister that ADNOC “stood ready” to support Colombia to develop its fossil fuel resources, while other talking points for 13 other countries, including Germany and Egypt, suggested telling them that it wanted to work with their governments to develop fossil fuel projects.
Although the primary outcome of COP28 was the agreement among countries to shift away from fossil fuels, what lies ahead for people to expect next year?
The next UN climate summit, COP29, is scheduled to take place in Azerbaijan, another big player in the oil and gas industry. The statement to ‘transition’ from fossil fuel use might have been a score in
The Global Stocktake (GST), a process for countries and stakeholders to see where they’re collectively making progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement.But Hailey Campbell, Co-Executive Director of Care About Climate, spelled out that globally, we were still not on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and this was not something to celebrate about.
“Some genuine strides forward were made in the GST (Global Stock Take), but as the room roared in celebration, we, the youth, did not clap. We will not clap for complacency and an outcome that does not openly safeguard our future by funding an equitable fossil fuel phase out. We will keep fighting for our future,” said Campbell.
This story was produced with support from MESHA and IDRC Eastern and Southern Africa Office.
Caption on picture: His Excellency Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President
