Opposition facing a tall order in by-elections

By Daily Revelation Editor

The Socialist Party’s chief presidential advisor Brian Hapunda says it was shameful that the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) declared the UPND candidate as a winner in the Mfuwe by-elections when the ruling party cadres manipulated the results in their presence.

He said when SP reported the matter to the police, the officers were afraid to arrest the UPND cadres for fear of being fired.

Hapunda charged that the UPND took over two polling stations and started getting ballot papers belonging to other candidates.

Hapunda could be right in the assertions he is making about the conduct of the police and ruling party cadres. Generally, from time immemorial ruling parties in this country have not always conducted themselves with dignity during by-elections and sometimes during general elections. And those who are supposed to arrest the misbehavior have actually failed to do anything about the problem mainly on account of fear of losing their jobs, and for some loyalty to the people who appointed them into office.

The campaign landscape in elections has mainly favoured the ruling party because of the power of incumbency and a favourable resource envelope.

The opposition political parties who have managed to win elections have done so mainly because of the overwhelming willpower of the people to vote against the ruling party, despite the lingering adversities they have encountered.

It therefore means that those in the opposition should work towards creating overwhelming support bases that will counter whatever disadvantages that are stacked against opposition parties.

However, despite the clear disadvantage against the opposition, we still feel that the ruling party was still going to win the by-elections in Mfuwe because of the clear advantages that have been alluded to, including the fact that they are still benefiting from the absence of the PF, a singular opposition force that could offer them a competitive election, especially in the area where that election was being contested.

Some may argue that the PF were accounted for through the Tonse Alliance which contested through the NCP. However, name recognition also matters when contesting elections. The other competitors like the SP could be said to still be a party that is establishing itself around the country and is not yet fully mobilised. Clearly, even in their formative stage, they are showing that they will be competitive with time, but it will surely take a bit of time.

What is clear from these just ended elections, and the ones that have been held across the country before that, is that it will be very hard for any singular opposition political party to challenge the ruling UPND as a single force. While there is still time, the opposition should start thinking seriously about coming up with one united umbrella to be competitive especially in the 2026 general elections.

Just the fact that even with the aggregate score for the opposition in Mfuwe, they still trail far behind the ruling UPND. That is something they should ponder up when doing their reviews from the just ended elections, including those that have been held across the country before that.