By Justice Malala
(Bloomberg Opinion) — Until recently, Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema seemed to have it all: The adulation of the business community, growing support among his political constituency and admiration from global peers for rescuing a shattered economy.
Promising to triple copper output —which accounts for more than 70% of Zambia’s export earnings — to 3 million tons annually and accelerate economic reforms that were beginning to bear fruit, he was a shoo-in for a second term in the presidential elections held on Aug. 13. Hichilema, however, has debased his victory.
Instead of just taking the win that analysts and pollsters maintained he would achieve, Hichilema’s government overreached by silencing critics, exploiting its incumbency to disadvantage opponents, suppressing free speech through a new cybercrimes law and suspending vote counting arbitrarily. An opposition leader died under highly suspicious circumstances.
The final straw came this week when police and the military shut down access to courts across the country — the day before a deadline for petitions to challenge the election results. The government cited unspecified security concerns; but the timing and the tactics, including military barricades of court premises, made it clear the action was aimed at blocking any attempt by the opposition to dispute the outcome.
“Today may be the last day of our democracy,” said Linda Kasonde, former president of the Law Association of Zambia.
The influential Mo Ibrahim Foundation, which supports good governance and exceptional leadership in Africa, issued a brutally honest short statement addressed to Hichilema: “Mr. President, your first mandate was defined by progress. Do not waste what you have achieved.”
One of the shining stars of African governance now has question marks hanging over him following what should have been an unremarkable, but important, reelection. The results will likely stand, and the copper-rich nation may well thrive under Hichilema’s astute economic management — but his autocratic tactics have aroused bitter opposition that may cause him trouble down the line.
It didn’t have to be this way. After the vote was signed off by regional and international observers as largely peaceful, the business-friendly former economist was declared winner with 60.5% of the tally; his main challenger, Brian Mundubile, got just 38%. Then the repressive actions that had taken place before the election were suddenly accelerated. Vote-counting was suspended for hours. Police raided an opposition home, killed a Mundubile ally and arrested 11 people. Mundubile went into hiding, threatened with treason charges.
This post-election round of repression is puzzling because there was little chance of the election result being overturned or a rerun taking place. Hichilema’s winning margin of more than a million votes — compared with just over 100,000 in 2016 when Hichilema alleged he was robbed by then-President Edgar Lungu — was too wide for the opposition to realistically close.
Hichilema’s slide into authoritarianism is even more surprising as it mirrors what happened to him following that vote a decade ago. He was arrested and accused of endangering Lungu’s life after his motorcade allegedly refused to give way to the president’s. He was charged with treason and detained for 100 days.
Zambians appalled by corruption and democratic backsliding under Lungu voted him out in 2021, giving Hichilema his chance after five failed attempts. Hichilema presents himself as a man with a plan to turn Zambia’s fortunes around.
He inherited a country reeling from a sovereign debt default, and energetically set about restructuring the debt. He encouraged international investment, and drove annual inflation down to an eight-year low of 6.2% from a June 2021 peak of 24.6%. Thanks to his efforts, the International Monetary Fund projects Zambia’s economy will grow by 5.8% this year, up from an April forecast of 4.3% and a 2025 expansion of 3.8%.
All of this is imperiled by an impetuous, unnecessary grab for more power than he needs. A fragmented opposition and a generally satisfied civil society now have a reason to organize against Hichilema — and they will.
What was a clear path towards transforming Zambia into a democratic and peaceful economic powerhouse today faces real challenges. Hichilema has no one to blame but himself.
He frittered away his advantage unnecessarily. There is still enough goodwill for the president to correct course, but suspicions about his administration and his character will linger.
Credit: Bloomberg
